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Thursday, 8 August 2013

WTI looks strong but is it running out of steam?


I do enjoy seeing the technical analysis work quite brilliantly at times. Perfect example of this shown by the breakout of the ascending triangle.  Height of the shape gives the projection plus level of breakout, so $10+$98=$108, which is exactly the level the rally stopped at! Phew at least some of the jibber I come out with is marginally useful.  






The technical picture for WTI looks similar to the post I just made on Brent on the short term.  We've just made a double top and given the state of the indicators look like we might be heading south for the time being as we've seen divergence on the Momentum indicator and MACD pointing down. Important levels for on the downside are $103, then the uptrend line which I suspect might be around $100 if it gets there sooner rather than later, the $98 below that, top of the ascending triangle.  Failure to break down, we should test the Double Top again $108.50.

Looking at the long term chart, upside targets beyond that are $109.80 and $113.85.  Again taking a step back looks like we are towards the top of the longer term range, which might add to the downward pressure, look out for any crossing of the SMAs going forward.

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