AUDUSD - Bounced off strong support

The AUDUSD had a good attempt on the 0.9300 level but it proved too strong to break moving our focus back on the upside resistances which are at 0.9425, 0.9525 and 0.9700 currently.

I'm still in a bearish mindset on this and see as these levels as opportunities to short the currency however.  Looking at the fundamentals, there is growing concern over tightening financial conditions in China, Australia's largest exporter, as the chinese repo rate hit 5.45% on 15th Nov, fuelling some speculation that the worlds second largest economy's growth could be cooling.

GBPUSD - Broken neckline, but waiting for BoE inflation data

Following on from my last post on the 23Oct, we have seen a confirmed rejection of the 1.6250 level, making a 2 month low yesterday, breaking the neckline of the double top chart formation.  I would expect this weakness to persist on the short term and for the pairing to trade back down towards the 1.5700/1.5750 support area, from a technical point of view.

The quarterly BoE inflation is due later today so the market will be very much subdued before this publication at 10.30am GMT.

EURGBP - Bear channel still intact

Given that I haven't yet commented on the EURGBP I'll start off with the long term charts and increase granularity as I go along.

On the LT charts we can see that we are in a corrective wave pattern from the aggressive price action from the end of 2007-2008.  The Fibo levels have proven to be good support levels along the way at 38.2% (0.8537), 50% (0.8159) and at 61.8% (0.7781) which have all now been met.

AUDUSD - Gann Fan proving too much for the bulls

The currency pairing has had a very good recovery since its August low and managed to reach the 50% Fibo retracement of the April-August down move.  Bearish comments from RBA members and tightening Chinese financial conditions are putting a downer on the recent strength.  We are also starting to see some USD strength back as well as the US job data is improving once again and the expectations of the FED tapering are starting to build.  The next RBA meeting is on the 19th November which may suggest what is in store for the AUD.

DowJones - Are we poised for a move higher

It was a strong day for US equities on Friday and we could be on course for a breakout.  Financial stocks led the way after bullish job market data gave rise to expectations that the economic recovery is back on track and that interest rates may rise sooner than previously thought.  I must add that we do need a follow through at the beginning of next week to confirm this move however.

EURUSD - Rethink after yesterday's surprise cut

Yesterdays surprise rate cut from the ECB to a record 0.25% caught a fair few out, shown with a viscous sell off immediately after the announcement, but did it manage to recover later in the day to settle back above the 1.3400 mark.

We have convincingly broken out of the trend channel but now seeing some support from the 100day SMA and 38.2% Fibb retracement level / previous high at 1.3420 level.  Given the combination of these, this could prove to be a strong support so needs to be watched closely.

EURUSD - Under pressure

Its been a heavy week for the Euro after an very impressive recent run.  After lower than expected inflation data released earlier this week, it has promoted people's view that the ECB could be about to loosen their monetary policy and cut interest rates next week in their meeting on the 7th November, in order to stimulate the eurozone growth.