AUDUSD - Broken below the 2013 low already

China's underperformance persists and with economic analysts starting to revise their growth forecast down to levels only seen back in 2005, it doesn't look like this outlook will turn around anytime soon.   Lagging Australian economic results also continue to disappoint weighing further on this currency and with calls that further RBA cuts are required to simulate this heavily commodity driven currency, it might be a case of 'things are going to get worse before it gets better' so to speak.

AUDUSD - Chinese data is not helping the bulls

We had some interesting Chinese data overnight with YoY exports gaining 12.7%, smashing the 7.1% forecast which was mainly driven by stronger shipments to the US and EU.  Imports however were only up 5.3%, failing to reach the estimate of 7.6%, which could put the AUD under further pressure. Weaker global commodities prices are also continuing to wane on this currency and more work might be required from the RBA in order to turn the local economy around as well.

AUDUSD - Bounced off strong support

The AUDUSD had a good attempt on the 0.9300 level but it proved too strong to break moving our focus back on the upside resistances which are at 0.9425, 0.9525 and 0.9700 currently.

I'm still in a bearish mindset on this and see as these levels as opportunities to short the currency however.  Looking at the fundamentals, there is growing concern over tightening financial conditions in China, Australia's largest exporter, as the chinese repo rate hit 5.45% on 15th Nov, fuelling some speculation that the worlds second largest economy's growth could be cooling.

AUDUSD - Gann Fan proving too much for the bulls

The currency pairing has had a very good recovery since its August low and managed to reach the 50% Fibo retracement of the April-August down move.  Bearish comments from RBA members and tightening Chinese financial conditions are putting a downer on the recent strength.  We are also starting to see some USD strength back as well as the US job data is improving once again and the expectations of the FED tapering are starting to build.  The next RBA meeting is on the 19th November which may suggest what is in store for the AUD.

AUDUSD - Hitting heavy traffic

 Since my last post the AUDUSD as performed very well reaching the upside target of 0.9700.  This is the 50% retracement of the April-August down move as well as the bottom of the sideways trend channel of 2011 / 2012.  Both events could offer strong resistance to further up moves so this level should be watched closely.  On a  confirmed break on the upside, that would give the green light that we have re-entered the previous sideways trend just mentioned and see a swift run up back to the 1.020 level.

AUDUSD - Looks Strong but for how Long?

Well the AUDUSD has seen a good recovery in the run up to, and post government elections.  But is simply changing governments enough to sustain the recent gains?  Change is often for the better, but there are plenty who are still sceptical of its recent run and believe that a lower exchange rate is still needed in order to rebalance the local economy, not just a change in government.

AUDUSD - Retesting lows sub 0.9000

 The AUDUSD has sold off gain this morning and is back under the 0.9000 level after having flirted with the idea of staying above the 20Day MAs but once again was rejected.  We had a bounce off the previous downtrend line but failed to break above the 0.9050 / 0.9070 so are retesting the previous lows.  MACD and other trending indicators are not working terribly well on the daily charts it has to be noted, so am watchful of the Parabolics.

AUDUSD - Good trading opportunity, IF Non-farm disappoint

Well, the the the first time in quite a long time the AUD doesn't look so bad.  In my last post 08/08/13 AUDUSD we mentioned the resistance from the down trendline and 20day SMA & EMA might prove too much, but I have to admit I think it might just have succeeded. Yesterday's price action was a very key day for the bulls, bouncing off both the moving averages as well as the 38.3% retracement from the 5th - 9th August rally at 0.9075 level.  The candlestick was encouraging too with a bullish engulfing pattern displayed.

AUDUSD - Is this just another pullback, just like all the other times?

We had a very good recovery of the currency rallying back 250points, but has anything really changed.  It is worth mentioning and highlighting the relationship with the price action to the 20 Day SMA and EMA. They've previously its acted as a nice resistance on the currency, and struggled to hold its gains above this level the days following.  We're approaching the potential (yet to be 3point confirmed) downtrend line.

Is something finally going to go the Aussie's way?!?

The aussie is looking interesting and had quite the pullback in the long term daily chart.  But looks to me like we'll be running into some heavy traffic around the .8700 level and see some buying interest back into the market.  This might stem from both the Elliotticians getting excited about the 38.2% retracement being met combined with the fact that we've slipped nicely back into range seen pre and post financial crisis.