AUDUSD - Hitting heavy traffic

 Since my last post the AUDUSD as performed very well reaching the upside target of 0.9700.  This is the 50% retracement of the April-August down move as well as the bottom of the sideways trend channel of 2011 / 2012.  Both events could offer strong resistance to further up moves so this level should be watched closely.  On a  confirmed break on the upside, that would give the green light that we have re-entered the previous sideways trend just mentioned and see a swift run up back to the 1.020 level.


The technicals might make us a little wary that the push further higher might not be imminent as they imply that the currency pairing is the over bought territory, so should be careful of length being reduced from the market on a cross back down below the 80 level on the RSI.  MACD still looks strong and in positive territory signalling that the trend is still in motion, but historically it doest hold onto gains >100 on the outright level which should also be noted.

I would expect the 38.2% retracement (of the Apr-Sept down move) to be retested on the downside which coincides nicely with the previous significant high on 18th Sept at 0.9500.  The 38.2% retracement of the rally that we are in (Sept-Present) is at 0.9426 which may also offer support if it comes under further pressure on the short term.




Charts sourced from ig.com