The BoJ's ultra loose monetary policy continues to weaken the Yen and risk appetite across the board is increasing off the back of positive global economic sentiment economic as well as improving job market data, reducing the demand for 'safe haven' currencies.
The positive job data will also inevitably bring us back to the FED tapering debate and when the market expects this to happen but most analysts aren't forecasting this to happen till March time though some are erring on the earlier side, potentially even in Jan or Feb. This should lead to strength coming back into the USD, though we also have to bear in mind that the Republicans & Democrats still have to thrash out a Debt ceiling deal in February which is always a bit of a pantomime so might see some volatility around these upcoming months.
Tuesday, 10 December 2013
Monday, 9 December 2013
AUDUSD - Chinese data is not helping the bulls
We had some interesting Chinese data overnight with YoY exports gaining 12.7%, smashing the 7.1% forecast which was mainly driven by stronger shipments to the US and EU. Imports however were only up 5.3%, failing to reach the estimate of 7.6%, which could put the AUD under further pressure. Weaker global commodities prices are also continuing to wane on this currency and more work might be required from the RBA in order to turn the local economy around as well.
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