Brent - Still trading in a sideways range

Brent 2014 forecasts range from around $98 - $110, with the main variance of forecasts being derived from the supply risk associated with Opec production. Some analysts think that the supply disruptions that we've seen over the past couple of year should persist whereas others are more optimistic around the supply side leading to lower estimates. The deteriorating political situation in Venezuela and the Libyan militants blocking some of the main ports disrupting exports are causing the most concern at the moment.  We should however continue to see strong demand coming from the emerging markets and Non-opec production driven from US and Canadian shale.

Brent - Testing supports

This is the 3rd consecutive day of losses on the Brent contract but we might see some support come back in around the 106.50/106.00 area.  After testing the 117.00 level due to the escalation in the Syrian crisis, the risk premium has been slowly reduced as the western intervention seems less likely now.   The technicals aren't giving us a clear story at the moment, but taking step back and looking at a longer term view, we are still in a slow uptrend as we still have a couple trendlines intact.

Brent - Starting to fail

We had strong upside rejection yesterday breaking the first trend line.  This down move was  pretty violent and resulted in the MACD crossing down off the back of it.

Looks like we could be forming a Double Top chart pattern, if so a break of the neckline of 112.24, would give downside target of 108.00.  But till then we will have to sit on the fence as we may see a temporary recovery after yesterdays move.   The Maribuzo line is worth noting as a key resistance to watch out for at 114.45.  So long as this holds we should expect lower numbers yet to come.  Other key levels to be aware of are indicated on the chart.

Charts sourced from ig.com

Brent - Preparation is Key

I dont think it comes to many people's surprise that Brent looks bullish, as well yes it does, but I think it might be worth talking objectively about this commodity and pointing out target levels.   Given its recent up move has been on a risk premium being priced in to the contract (Syria - Middle East contagion, Egypt - Suez canal closure), it can also be wiped out just quick as it was priced in.

Brent - An improving oil v equities correlation?

Looks like we've got good oil / equities correlation because we can draw some good similarities in chart patterns between Brent / FTSE100 and S&P500 daily charts.  Just like the other charts, we're testing the neckline of a Double Top formation on the daily chart and have bearish MACD and a downtrend in the RSI.  Also note, that we have been having some good afternoon recoveries shown by a lot of long lower shadow candles, so be weary of any morning sell offs and remember to wait for a confirmation on the close, to avoid being chopped.

Brent looking weak, but might have a bumpy road ahead

Brent looks like it might try to push lower, but it may be running into some heavy traffic first as we have some support levels just ahead. We are currently seeing the up trend line under pressure, and just below that we have the bottom of one and top of another sideways trend channel resistances as well as the Elliot wave's 38.2% retracement all dotted within the $105.00-$105.80 range.  A break and close below these levels would give the green light for the targets $102.00 and $99.80.